As you may recall, I rely on data* for decision making whenever possible. For some decisions, there are little or no data, but for many others there are an abundance of data. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic provides significant data.
I don’t have the fancy models that the experts use, but once upon a time I seem to recall taking some statistics classes in college and other courses that included statistics. I’ve been tracking the number of new cases of COVIDS-19 and deaths from the disease using Worldometers. Under the principle of KISS–keep it simple, stupid–I use only a linear progression and a 5-day moving average.
Deaths, thank God, continue to decline. Apparently, the medical professionals have figured out how to reduce, if not eliminate, its harshest outcome.
New cases, on the other hand, not only continue to climb, but have recently accelerated. I don’t have sufficient data to guesstimate the reasons; I have my opinions, but there are too many opinion driven events already.
Here are my results:
* Data is plural for datum, although is is often used both as singular or plural.