I’ve blogged in the past about my simplistic projection for the COVID-19 disease. So far, I haven’t been too far off, meaning my projections and actual cases have been reasonably close. I’m moderately surprised. Nevertheless, I’m continuing my project.
I now have about 2 1/2 months of data for new cases per day and new deaths per day. I extended the trend line projections out through the end of the year. Here’s what I’m seeing.
The graph above shows the number of deaths per day. For a while it actually appeared to be trending downward, but in the past few weeks, it has dramatically increased. The massive swings from day to day, I believe, are not completely accurate. My theory is that this reflects when the paperwork was actually recorded–not necessarily when the deaths occurred. It may also reflect the delay after the death when an autopsy or other method is necessary to determine the actual cause of death.
In any case, if there is any accuracy to this projection, it’s discouraging that we might soon see more than 1,000 deaths from COVID-19 per day, every day. It’s worse to think that the number of deaths may, in fact, increase.
The number of cases per day is the second graph (above). It sort of looks like the curve is turning downward, but the math indicates that overall, it is expected to increase. We’ll have to wait and see how the numbers turn out. I’d prefer it would decrease, but I don’t feel comfortable saying that cases will decrease. (Let’s all cross our fingers!)
Unfortunately, in the media it seems that after a person suffers from COVID-19, the only two outcomes are–1) Death, or 2) Everything returns to normal. Unfortunately, it appears that there are other outcomes.
Some COVID-19 survivors suffer long term effects. Lungs can be damaged to the point that normal life will never again be possible. Some people have suffered from multiple organ failures. Others have experienced vascular problems requiring the amputation of limbs. I do not have access to the data specific to these outcomes, so they may be unusual or they may be common. I just hope it isn’t me.
I hope that the trend reverses. Unfortunately, it is dependent on people religiously committing to wearing masks, maintaining social distances, hand washing, etc.
I’m not optimistic.
sfnowak 