Tag Archives: coronavirus

COVID-19 Update 11/14/2020

I had planned a different topic for today, but the increase in COVID-19 cases is too important to wait as the number of cases has jumped. The number of deaths has not increased at the same rate, but there are factors beyond number of cases.

  • Many COVID-19 cases require that the patient receive the high level of care available only in Intensive Care Units (ICUs). In some places we have already exceeded the number of ICU beds and ICU rooms have become double occupancy. In other cases, patients who have suffered a heart attack are moved out of the Cardiac Care Unit so that those beds can be used for COVID-19 patients.
  • Hospital staff is at risk, not only for being infected, but also from physical, mental, or emotional burnout. Dealing with patients who had not taken proper precautions and are now dying is especially hard. Imagine watching someone die as they say, “I wish I would have known,” or, “I wish I had been more careful.”
  • Personal Protective Equipment has been adequate, but as demand increases, the supply may not keep up.

My personal fear is that some people will relax because of the good news regarding vaccines. Unfortunately, the logistics of manufacturing 700 million doses, delivering them while frozen, and administering two doses to everyone takes time. Unfortunately, immunity is not instantaneous and the patient remains susceptible during the time between injection and the body producing its own antibodies.

Some people are anti-vaccine. If there are side effects, additional people may be concerned enough to also avoid the vaccine. A significant portion of the population must be willing to be vaccinated; herd immunity after the 19th century has been achieved by a majority of the population being vaccinated, not by a majority surviving the disease.

So where are we?

Daily deaths still vary depending on day of the week, which is probably due to some paperwork not being filed on weekends. However, there is a significant upward trend over the last few weeks and a moderate increase in the trend line. As ICU beds are filled and some patients shunted to normal beds, this bears watching.

Daily new cases show a significant increase since mid-October, which is also reflected in the trend line.

I get my data from Worldometer, so it’s no surprise that their graph is similar.

Anecdotally, there seem to be more superspreader events, for a variety of reasons. People are weary of the isolation and some do not believe the pandemic is real. Now that the election season is over, I suspect that the main events may be family holiday celebrations.

So, the same advice still holds:

  • Wash your hands
  • Wear a mask
  • Stay at home
  • Maintain social distancing
  • Avoid touching your face

COVID-19 Update 10/31/2020

Food Safety and the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) | FDA

Whether it’s the second wave of the first surge or a second wave, the number of COVID cases has begun to increase significantly.

First the (sort of) good news. Deaths have more or less stabilized at average of just under 900 per day. There are exceptions, such as the 27-29th of October when there were over 1,000 deaths each day.

I cannot comfortably say that this trend will continue. The medical community has learned a lot and become more effective, but this stability in death rates cannot be expected to be maintained as the number of new cases increases. Once the number of cases that require intensive care exceed the available ICU beds, it can be expected that the number of deaths will increase. Reports are that this is already the case in El Paso, Texas where adult patients with non-COVID medical issues are being sent to a pediatric hospital to make beds available for pandemic patients.

DAILY DEATHS

Now for the bad news. The number of new cases per day has begun to significantly increase. Yesterday, new cases exceeded 101,000–a record number.

NEW CASES

Because the data now include over 150 entries, a sudden change over a short period of time tends not immediately impact the trend line. However, if the increase that began in late September continues, the trend will follow.

Other factors to consider include:

  • Preliminary data do not indicate permanent or long term immunity for those who have been infected.
  • Treatment options from hydroxychloroquine to Remdesvir do not seem to cure the disease. The best they have been able to do is to mitigate some of the symptoms. While recovery time was shorter when Remdesvir was administered, death rates among patients treated with Remdesvir were statistically similar to patients treated with a placebo. [Link]
  • COVID-19 outcomes are not limited to death or recovery. So called long-haul patients experience a number of long term–and possibly permanent–changes that impact the quality of life, in some cases severely.

My personal interpretation:

  • New cases will continue to increase until either an effective vaccine or a cure is discovered.
  • Given that a segment of the population chooses to ignore prophylactic measures, such as social distancing and wearing masks, numbers can be expected to continue to rise.
  • Family interaction during the holidays will increase infection rates as some people who are normally careful relax their safety measures due to the overarching importance of families.

I fear that many future holidays may be remembered in terms of the death of a loved one due to COVID. I have racked my brain trying to identify even a tiny new idea as to how to deal with the pandemic without success. The best I can offer is: 1) wear a mask; 2) maintain social distancing; and 3) practice frequent and thorough handwashing.

COVID-19 Update

I continue to track coronavirus cases, as I have since 24 May 2020. My simple linear progression is no longer adequate for anything more than broad statements. I defer to the experts and their more complex models.

However, as any analyst will tell you, there is still a lot that can be learned from the data, even if the search for future activity is taken off the table. Here are some findings and postulations that I find interesting:

There are a fair number of footnotes to the data. Some states try to backdate cases or events for a variety of reasons. It could be plain old human error, processes that are not robust enough to handle the large numbers of cases, or even an attempt to have better optics.

The daily data always decreases over the weekend. I don’t think fewer people get sick or die on weekends, but I can see the paperwork not being filed until the regular workweek.

The rate of increase for new cases has slowed, but not flattened or showing a decline. It is still showing an increase between now and the end of the year. Similarly, the number of deaths continues to rise, but not as steeply as before, hopefully indicating the benefit of experience by healthcare workers. In other words, they are more effective using the tools they’ve had, rather than a miracle drug, although Remdesivir shows promise.

Remdesivir is expensive—$3,100 for a course of treatment in the US but only $2,340 in other developed countries. The rub here is that US taxpayers reportedly invested $99 million for Gilead Pharmaceuticals to develop the drug.

As of Saturday 10 October 2020, the United States has had 7,945,505 cases of COVID-19 resulting in 219,282 deaths. Another 5,089,842 patients recovered, which means there are still 2,636,381 active cases.  These patients may never recover, but may suffer from COVID-19’s various symptoms for the rest of their lives.

Testing is still an area that is somewhat vague. It is reported that 117,601,422 tests have been administered, but there are many anecdotal tales of people having difficulty getting tested. Reports indicate that elites, whether sports stars or politicians, are tested on a regular basis, while regular citizens are reportedly refused.

I wonder what is considered a COVID-19 test. The most definitive test involves inserting a long swab into the nasopharynx, which is quite unpleasant. I can’t see the elites tolerating this on a daily or weekly basis, so maybe they’re using a less accurate but more tolerable test.

Sadly, I believe we’ve got a long way to go before we can relegate COVID-19 to the history books.

Wrong Way COVID*

I had hoped that by now we’d be past the worst of the Coronavirus pandemic. I hoped that by now we could be back to normal. I’d hoped that my wife and I would be able to go out to eat or take a little trip. I’d hoped that going to the store would be a normal activity.

Alas, it was not to be.

As of today, there are 1,859,511 active COVID-19 cases in the United States and  we’ve had 140,702 deaths. Nevertheless, some people still insist that the pandemic is a hoax.

With more than 140 thousand deaths and many COVID-19 survivors facing life-long health problems due to COVID-19, I believe that it’s hardly a hoax. In fact, it scares the heck out of me.

The problem is that as cases climb, the load on hospitals will also climb. COVID-19 deaths have been lower lately because hospitals have had the capacity to treat coronavirus patients. Once hospital capacity is reached, deaths are expected to increase, quickly and significantly. I hope that I’m not one of those statistics.

When we speak of hospital capacity, it is important to remember that a one-thousand bed hospital is not able to take care of 1,000 COVID patients. COVID patients need intensive care during which they may be placed in isolation and/or on mechanical respirators. Respirators often require inducing a medical coma because people don’t like finding someone has stuffed a breathing tube down their throat. It’s best if they sleep through it.

So I shall wait. I will continue to avoid going out except for medical appointments. I will telework and attend church services via live video. I will continue to wash my hands about every thirty minutes. If I go past my mailbox, I will wear my face mask.

I will do these things, but I don’t have to like them.

*Apologies to Wrong Way Corrigan

 

COVID-19 Experiment

Effective today, 15 July 2020, hospitals and states have been directed to send their COVID-19 data directly to the CORONAVIRUS Task Force in the Department of Health and Human Services rather than the CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention). In the past, these data were submitted via the National Healthcare Safety Network, which is a CDC online site, but the information from the Department of Health and Human Services specifically says:
“As of July 15,, 2020, hospitals should no longer report the Covid-19 information in this document to the National Healthcare Safety Network site.”

The instruction can be downloaded here.

It will be interesting to see if this does result in faster, more accurate data. As I’ve pointed out before, there seems to be a delay for COVID-19 data  from weekends. Maybe this will more accurately represent the timing of new cases and new deaths. This may be important if schools reopen next month.

As an experiment, below are graphs depicting the trend lines for new cases and new deaths. It will be interesting to see if the same tend continues. The data is obtained from Worldometer (link) and I began collecting on 24 May, so it represents about a month and a half of data.

New COVID-19 Cases

New COVID-19 Deaths

Pandemic

As you may recall, I rely on data* for decision making whenever possible. For some decisions, there are little or no data, but for many others there are an abundance of data. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic provides significant data.

I don’t have the fancy models that the experts use, but once upon a time I seem to recall taking some statistics classes in college and other courses that included statistics. I’ve been tracking the number of new cases of COVIDS-19 and deaths from the disease using Worldometers. Under the principle of KISS–keep it simple, stupid–I use only a linear progression and a 5-day moving average.

Deaths, thank God, continue to decline. Apparently, the medical professionals have figured out how to reduce, if not eliminate, its harshest outcome.

New cases, on the other hand, not only continue to climb, but have recently accelerated. I don’t have sufficient data to guesstimate the reasons; I have my opinions, but there are too many opinion driven events already.

Here are my results:

* Data is plural for datum, although is is often used both as singular or plural.