I had planned a different topic for today, but the increase in COVID-19 cases is too important to wait as the number of cases has jumped. The number of deaths has not increased at the same rate, but there are factors beyond number of cases.
Many COVID-19 cases require that the patient receive the high level of care available only in Intensive Care Units (ICUs). In some places we have already exceeded the number of ICU beds and ICU rooms have become double occupancy. In other cases, patients who have suffered a heart attack are moved out of the Cardiac Care Unit so that those beds can be used for COVID-19 patients.
Hospital staff is at risk, not only for being infected, but also from physical, mental, or emotional burnout. Dealing with patients who had not taken proper precautions and are now dying is especially hard. Imagine watching someone die as they say, “I wish I would have known,” or, “I wish I had been more careful.”
Personal Protective Equipment has been adequate, but as demand increases, the supply may not keep up.
My personal fear is that some people will relax because of the good news regarding vaccines. Unfortunately, the logistics of manufacturing 700 million doses, delivering them while frozen, and administering two doses to everyone takes time. Unfortunately, immunity is not instantaneous and the patient remains susceptible during the time between injection and the body producing its own antibodies.
Some people are anti-vaccine. If there are side effects, additional people may be concerned enough to also avoid the vaccine. A significant portion of the population must be willing to be vaccinated; herd immunity after the 19th century has been achieved by a majority of the population being vaccinated, not by a majority surviving the disease.
So where are we?
Daily deaths still vary depending on day of the week, which is probably due to some paperwork not being filed on weekends. However, there is a significant upward trend over the last few weeks and a moderate increase in the trend line. As ICU beds are filled and some patients shunted to normal beds, this bears watching.
Daily new cases show a significant increase since mid-October, which is also reflected in the trend line.
I get my data from Worldometer, so it’s no surprise that their graph is similar.
Anecdotally, there seem to be more superspreader events, for a variety of reasons. People are weary of the isolation and some do not believe the pandemic is real. Now that the election season is over, I suspect that the main events may be family holiday celebrations.
I had hoped that by now we’d be past the worst of the Coronavirus pandemic. I hoped that by now we could be back to normal. I’d hoped that my wife and I would be able to go out to eat or take a little trip. I’d hoped that going to the store would be a normal activity.
Alas, it was not to be.
As of today, there are 1,859,511 active COVID-19 cases in the United States and we’ve had 140,702 deaths. Nevertheless, some people still insist that the pandemic is a hoax.
With more than 140 thousand deaths and many COVID-19 survivors facing life-long health problems due to COVID-19, I believe that it’s hardly a hoax. In fact, it scares the heck out of me.
The problem is that as cases climb, the load on hospitals will also climb. COVID-19 deaths have been lower lately because hospitals have had the capacity to treat coronavirus patients. Once hospital capacity is reached, deaths are expected to increase, quickly and significantly. I hope that I’m not one of those statistics.
When we speak of hospital capacity, it is important to remember that a one-thousand bed hospital is not able to take care of 1,000 COVID patients. COVID patients need intensive care during which they may be placed in isolation and/or on mechanical respirators. Respirators often require inducing a medical coma because people don’t like finding someone has stuffed a breathing tube down their throat. It’s best if they sleep through it.
So I shall wait. I will continue to avoid going out except for medical appointments. I will telework and attend church services via live video. I will continue to wash my hands about every thirty minutes. If I go past my mailbox, I will wear my face mask.
I will do these things, but I don’t have to like them.
Effective today, 15 July 2020, hospitals and states have been directed to send their COVID-19 data directly to the CORONAVIRUS Task Force in the Department of Health and Human Services rather than the CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention). In the past, these data were submitted via the National Healthcare Safety Network, which is a CDC online site, but the information from the Department of Health and Human Services specifically says:
“As of July 15,, 2020, hospitals should no longer report the Covid-19 information in this document to the National Healthcare Safety Network site.”
It will be interesting to see if this does result in faster, more accurate data. As I’ve pointed out before, there seems to be a delay for COVID-19 data from weekends. Maybe this will more accurately represent the timing of new cases and new deaths. This may be important if schools reopen next month.
As an experiment, below are graphs depicting the trend lines for new cases and new deaths. It will be interesting to see if the same tend continues. The data is obtained from Worldometer (link) and I began collecting on 24 May, so it represents about a month and a half of data.
There is a lot of angst regarding the corona virus (COVID-19). Oddly, most news coverage focuses on its impact on the stock market.
The news media, critically important for a democratic society, focuses on stories that sell newspapers, encourage internet clicks, or result in more pharmaceutical advertising during the evening news.
However, it’s best to put things in perspective.
According to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) there are now 459 COVID-19 [link] cases in the United States. There was a death today, which although is regrettable, makes a total of one.
The disease that infects millions and kills thousands is no big deal because we see it every year. A new disease, because it is novel, scares us to (near) death.
I’m not minimizing the potential of the virus. However, COVID-19 has been sensationalized, so the threat and probability of encountering it are more prominent in our mind, regardless of likelihood. Each of is, at least at this point, far more likely to be seriously affected by or to die from influenza, yet we focus on COVID-19.
I wish each of you good health–and a speedy recovery for your equity holdings.