Tag Archives: storm

Mother Nature and the Odds

I live in an area that has experienced hurricanes, but not since 2011. Some around here now feel that we’re free of that threat. There might be some truth, at least for a while, given that current weather trends tend to have wind shear that trim the tops of hurricanes, weakening them, and there is a natural pattern that tends to push the storms back out into the Atlantic.

We’re good, right? After all, once a weather pattern occurs, it doesn’t change—does it?

Long ago, in statistics class I was taught an interesting fact. You flip an honest coin 100 times, and it comes up heads each time. What are the odds it will come up heads on the next flip?

Fifty-fifty.

We’ve blamed el Nino, la Nina, butterflies in Africa, etc. I don’t think we’ve quite figured anything out.

It Will Never Happen to Me!

For some reason, there seems to be a human proclivity for believing this.

I smoke, but I will never suffer from lung cancer.

My spouse will never know.

Global climate change is a myth.

My cellphone will always work.

Now that I’ve made it, I’m going to move into a beautiful home on the beach.

So, why, today, are people stuck in a giant traffic jam, headed north on Interstate 95, incommunicado, and out of gas?

It doesn’t matter, it will never happen to me.

P.S. I prepare for things that just might happen. I also try to help my community prepare, although much falls on deaf ears. Too bad—most people are capable of grasping the concept—they have smoke alarms, fire extinguishers, and fire insurance even though most of us know few (or none) who have lost a home in a fire. Hurricanes, floods, tornadoes—it will never happen to me.

It Was a Dark and Stormy, er, Day

crh.noaa.gov

crh.noaa.gov

It was a grey day. No sunshine. Just dreary.

Then a storm blew through the area canceling my plans to cook outside.

In other words, it was a perfect Saturday for puttering, reading and relaxing.

Sandy Moves Out

Some storms are destructive. Other storms less so. Many are less destructive in one area and more so in another. That’s the way Sandy looks.

Chesapeake opened up its Emergency Operations Center and two shelters, so I spent most of yesterday evening and today helping out with communications. Meanwhile the storm was mainly a non-event. Our street briefly had one section with perhaps 3 inches of water – nothing like we’ve experienced in the past. As I said, a non-event.

Here.

North of here things may not be so calm.

I hope everybody up there does okay.

Preparing for Frankenstorm

All eyes around here are on Hurricane Sandy – the weatherguessers are calling this the “Possible Perfect Storm!” But to quote a meteorologist I know, “In what other job can you be wrong 70% of the time and be seen as fantastic?”

A storm or two ago one of the reporters for a national weather channel was out at Virginia Beach acting like he was heroically braving the elements. It was windy, but nothing deadly, so some of the local teenagers got behind him and waved. It ruined the illusion, so his response was something like “Don’t these people realize the danger they’re in?”

Weather people are adrenaline junkies. Remember the movie “Twister”? (One of my favorites, by the way.) The real weather chasers are pretty much like that.

If you live up north and haven’t experienced a hurricane, think blizzard – lots of moisture and lots of wind. You get enough warning to stock up on the essentials and then sit inside and watch it happen.

We did get up early this morning and clean up all the miscellaneous in the yard so that nothing will become airborne and break a window. With wind and rain that can be messy.

So now we wait.

Oh, and I can cross “Clean up the yard” off my general purpose list of things to do.