Thousands of cicadas will swarm us! (Again)
Explorers claim to have found Noah’s Ark! (Again)
Scientists claim to have found Amelia Earhart’s airplane! (Again)
The economy is growing! (Again, or maybe not)
The economy is failing! (Again, or maybe not)
Continued from yesterday’s blog
There are several key pieces in the development of a survey. These include:
We have already established that the first two criteria are difficult, if not impossible, in the current political climate. The pool of participants seems to bias those who rely on landline telephones, which seems to favor older Americans. While businesses utilize landline phone lines, they also deploy an army of electronic measures to discourage most callers; “We say that your call is important to us, but we’re not going to answer it until you figure out how to get past the computerized answering system. Good luck!”
I confess that we have a landline as well as cellular phones. The main reason we have it is to answer spam calls, such as political surveys.
The unbiased phrasing of questions is extremely difficult. I do not claim to be an expert, although my Master’s thesis was survey based. Developing the questions is extremely difficult and most examples I see are not phrased neutrally. It doesn’t have to be blatant, such as, “Do you prefer candidates who eat babies?” Subtle phrasing is far more effective.
Then there are the hypothetical questions, such as “If the election were held today, would you vote for candidate A or candidate B.”
I realize that some professions, such as law schools, use hypotheticals as a training tool. However, to project future occurrences with hypotheticals is fraught with danger. In the example above, the fact is that the election is not being held today. A million variables will influence the outcome; there might be the death of one of the candidates, as would an outbreak of international hostilities, natural disasters, etc. If we accept hypotheticals as appropriate, then why not go all the way? “If the election were held in ten years with an intergalactic alien running against candidate A, for whom would you vote?”
After a poll is completed and the data analyzed, the projected outcome is still primarily a guess.
Posted in Communications, Culture, ethics, Politics
Polls—and other political tools are wonderful and strange things.
I—like many other Americans—don’t respond to many telephone calls. If the phone rings with a number I don’t recognize, I don’t answer. Friends and relatives leave a message, pollsters and cold call salespeople don’t. I figure that if they don’t want to leave a message, then they really don’t want to talk with me.
My father had it at the level of an art form. Because he was a police officer and didn’t want (nor was he paid) to field calls at home when he was off duty. There was no caller ID, and in a bow to greed, the phone company began charging extra to have an unlisted number, so Dad had the telephone listed as Buford Thorndyke—an obviously made-up name. When a telemarketer called, he’d customize his response. Among the best:
“Buford isn’t here right now. He’s doing a few months for passing bad checks, but I’m sure he’d be interested.” (I don’t think he ever got to the next line, “Do you take checks?”)
Another favorite of Dad’s for telemarketers, “Wonderful presentation. However, in your line of work, you need to have the facts readily available at a moment’s notice, so I want to talk to you about the Encyclopedia Britannica.” (It was pre-Internet.)
Pollsters may not get a truly representative sample, which skews their results. Public opinion companies believe they believe that they can adjust for such variables, so don’t be surprised if they predict a win for either Wendell Wilkie or Adalai Stevenson.
(TO BE CONTINUED . . . .)
Posted in Business, Communications, Culture, Government, Politics
It was a surprise to the guards who were guarding Jesus’ tomb. They had done everything to stay awake and watch the rock that sealed the tomb, but it had been moved and Jesus’ body was now gone. They now feared for their lives—Pontius Pilate was not an understanding individual.
It was a surprise to Mary Magdalene, who had brought spices and oil to anoint his body. She was surprised when a man she thought was the gardener revealed himself to be Jesus.
The apostles were surprised when Mary Magdalene told them Jesus was alive.
Peter and John were surprised when they saw that Jesus’ tomb was empty.
Disciples on the road to Emmaus were surprised when the stranger they met on the road revealed himself to them at dinner to be Jesus.
If you find the miracle of Jesus’ resurrection to be difficult to understand, you’re in good company. That’s why God’s actions are called miracles.
Posted in Religion
It’s the day before Easter, at which time Jesus’ act of salvation for all mankind was complete. To non-Christians His rising from the dead and its importance might be confusing, but to Christians it is crystal clear and easily understood—at least as far as mortal minds can understand such an earth-shattering miracle.
So, for Easter, if for nothing else, let’s focus on what we have and what we share, rather than what differences we have with one another.
Happy Easter and God bless us all.
Posted in History, People, Philosophy, Religion
Christians believe that The Bible is God’s word, so wouldn’t it be sacrilegious to modify it for political purposes?
What if the new and improved collection of scriptures was packaged together with matching sneakers as a special during Holy Week?
If this sounds familiar, it’s merely coincidental.
Comic Book News
One recent trend that drives me crazy are news stories that have multiple pages and multiple pictures. For the story, you need to click through each page, which includes a short paragraph and a picture. The picture may sorta-kinda-almost have something in common with the text. What’s important is the number of clicks, not what is being reported.
Ads Ads Ads
We are slaves to big business—or at least they think so. It’s bad enough that every sports stadium has been renamed after a corporation. We’re all used to ads from the broadcast media. I especially like that now the side effect and other warnings are played at a faster speed than an auctioneer. However, now I get additional ads on my car radio. The text that formerly showed the name of the song playing now contains advertisements. The most common ones seem to be personal injury lawyers. I believe that if a driver gets distracted by such an ad and collides with something, that law firm should represent them for free.
Disease
I don’t care if you get vaccinated or not. However, if your cooties (measles, mumps, chicken pox, et al) gets others sick, then you should compensate them for the infection. Nobody else wants to suffer for your decision.
It’s difficult to write a blog while keeping away from politics—that’s why I haven’t written much lately. However, I finally had to admit to myself that silence is no longer possible. There’s so much hate. It seems like everyone is working overtime to separate “US” from “THEM”.
For the record, my political beliefs can be best described by Jesus’ Sermon on the Mount. If you haven’t read it in a while, please go and read it. Try Matthew 5-7.
Today’s mishigas was on CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/14/politics/kfile-gop-nominee-north-carolina-public-schools-michele-morrow-executing-democrats/index.html). The article states, “GOP nominee to run North Carolina public schools called for violence against Democrats, including executing Obama and Biden.”
Excuse me?
Isn’t murder a crime? Isn’t trying to convince others to commit murder also a crime?
Not to mention that this is especially heinous coming from anyone who is engaged in education.
This is totally inappropriate, and it’s also inappropriate that I, or anyone else, should have to mention it.
Posted in Culture, Education, ethics, Government, Politics
Alexie Navalny is dead. That is a fact. Though not yet proven, it’s a safe bet that he was murdered on the orders of Vladimir Putin.
Navalny was the embodiment of the opposition to Vladimir Putin. In August 2020, while flying within Russia, he was poisoned using Novichok, a powerful nerve agent reportedly used only by the Soviet Union / Russia. It was the second time a chemical agent had been used to silence him. Russian authorities declined to conduct an investigation.
After two days of treatment in Russia, he was medically evacuated to Germany where the presence of Novichok was identified and Navalny was successfully treated. He returned to Russia in January 2021, knowing that he would be arrested, tried, convicted, and sent to prison on trumped up charges.
While Navalny was in prison, other Russian political figures that Putin viewed as threats died under suspicious circumstances. Some were poisoned, others fell from windows in buildings tall enough to preclude survival. No one believes these were coincidental.
Vladimir Putin, a former KGB agent, has eliminated all who pose a political threat to his continuous rule since 2012. His goal is to return to the Imperial Russia of the past, or at least Putin’s view of that past, hence the invasion of Ukraine, resulting in hundreds of thousands of Russian casualties. Putin has made it clear that, other Soviet bloc countries and satellites should not believe they are safe.
Like most dictators throughout history, Putin views himself as invincible. It’s easy to understand why; the sycophants who surround him know that their survival depends on shielding him from anything that he might not want to hear.
Navalny is dead, but there is a parallel that I believe we may well see. In the original Star Wars movie, as Obi Wan faces death at the hand of Darth Vader, he said, “You can’t win, Darth. If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine.” I believe that Navalny will be even more powerful as a martyr than when he was alive.
Posted in dictator, murder, Politics
Tagged alexei-navalny, navalny, Politics, Putin, Russia
I struggle to comprehend many of the terms being bandied about the internet, especially in the area of politics. Cancel Culture is one that I believe I have figured out. As far as I can tell, you cancel things by ignoring them and getting others to ignore it too.
An interesting case of Cancel Culture was practiced, long ago. by the adherents to the Lost Cause—in other words—Confederate and Confederate sympathizers. I thought it was especially interesting given the reaction to the removal of Confederate monuments from prominent places, such as the boulevard in Richmond, Virginia.
Although many have been moved, there are numerous statues of some of the approximately 425 Confederate generals. For example, there are a number of statues of Robert E. Lee, even though he advised against such memorials*. The same is true of James Ewell Brown (J.E.B.) Stuart, Thomas Jonathon (Stonewall) Jackson, and even a nameless Confederate foot soldier, memorialized as The Silent Sentinel**.
The following came from “The Emerging Civil War” podcast on 19 November 2023 (a very interesting podcast, by the way).
What’s interesting is that Robert E. Lee’s right-hand man, James Longstreet, was cancelled by the South. Why was he not honored with statues and monuments since he had been a stalwart for the South throughout the war?
I tend to think that although monuments, or a lack of monuments wouldn’t have phased him, he did work to have his loyalty to the South from day one until Lee’s surrender recognized.
As one who has served in the military and has had command, I always welcomed helpful critique from my fellow officers and senior enlisted. It has saved me many a serious problem. (Thanks ladies and gentlemen with whom I’ve served.)
And, for what it’s worth, in my studies of history, I believe Longstreet was an asset. He was pragmatic while on the field of battle and after the war was over. Instead of nursing old wounds, he accepted reality and moved forward.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
* “As regards the erection of such a monument as is contemplated, my conviction is, that, however grateful it would be to the feelings of the South, the attempt, in the present condition of the country, would have the effect of retarding instead of accelerating its accomplishment, and of continuing if not adding to the difficulties under which the Southern people labor.” Robert E. Lee
** The “Silent Sentinel” was manufactured in the North and the model is believed to have served in the Union Army. The sentinel statue was sold to—and prominently displayed—in both Northern and Southern towns.
Posted in Culture, History, Leadership, Military
Tagged American Civil War, Civil War, confederate-monuments, History, pennsylvania
Many Americans point out how they regard the United States of America as a Christian country, even though the US Constitution, in the 1st Amendment—part of the Bill of Rights—states “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof.”
I am a devoted Christian, so I present these as historical curiosities, nothing more.
In Europe, religion had been an issue for many, many years since it also impacted power (read the history of England starting with Henry VIII). Nevertheless, many of our day-to-day normalcies are not based on Christianity.
For example, the days of the week.
The names of our month are somewhat less influenced by “pagan” names, but still . . . . :
From September on, names become more practical and less religious.
I guess we’re more ecumenical than we’ve thought.
Posted in Philosophy
Here’s an interesting exercise:
Pick a politician—any politician.
Now, imagine your daughter or son being exactly like that politician. Exactly. The good, the bad, and the ugly. No substitutions allowed.
How would you deal with them as an infant? A toddler? Child? Teen? etc.?
Posted in Culture
I grew up enjoying ridiculous comedy. I started off with Looney Tunes, moved onto Mad Magazine, The National Lampoon (magazine and radio), George Carlin, and Woody Allen (when he was funny and not creepy). I laughed at their ridiculousness.
I never expected to live in a world that was even more ridiculous. I’m shocked that the newscasts don’t have laugh tracks.
If I knew then what I know now . . . .
Posted in Communications, Culture, Government, Humor, Media, Philosophy
I read a Newsweek online story today by Kate Plummer. The headline read:
Republicans Annihilate Democrats in Virginia Election Sweep
But when I opened the page, the article continued with:
Republicans scored massive victories in elections held in Virginia on Tuesday, returning two GOP politicians to local legislature following the departure of the incumbents.
Two? Two?
I know print publications are doing everything on the cheap these days. They apparently no longer have editors; many of the errors that make it into the final version should be caught by any word processor.
I have to use a magnifying glass to read the comics, but with as small as they are, the ink bleeds so that some of the panels are illegible blobs of black.
At least publishers are consistent as they ride the print media death spiral.
Posted in Business, Communications, Culture, Media
Back in the day it was “Do-it-yourself—we want it fukced up good.” Do-It-Yourself, or DIY were primarily focused on avocations—hobbies and other interests one pursued for pleasure. To make it even better, DIY often involved the buying of tools, supplies—commonly known as toys. Guys could justify the purchase of any tool with the explanation that it would pay for itself when it wouldn’t be necessary to hire someone for a repair. It wasn’t just hardware, though. DIY could justify the purchase of everything from cake decorating materials to turnip twaddlers* to computers. Today, however, it seems like everything is do-it yourself and none of it is fun. In most states, people pump their own gas; forget about anyone checking your oil or tire pressure. If you want a clean windshield, DIY. Go to the store and you’re expected to ring up your own purchases and put them in the bag. To emphasize how ludicrous things can get, some self-serve checkouts have tip jars.
Go to the doctor’s office and you’re expected to log into their online website in advance and fill out a number of forms. Curiously, even with the power of computers, the forms still ask for the same information on each page, over and over—patient’s name, social security number, insurance information, etc. You’d think the computers could remember even if human receptionists cannot.
What’s next? Buy a stamp, get in your car and deliver the letter yourself? Do-it-yourself dental fillings or abdominal surgery? No doubt, we won’t have to wait long. Why? So far, as prices go up and service drops, senior management and stockholders enjoy record profits.
*Apologies to Berkely Breathed and Opus
December 7, 1941-a date which will live in infamy-the United States of America was suddenly and deliberately attacked by naval and air forces of the Empire of Japan.
President Franklin Delano Roosevelt before the US Congress
Eighty-two years ago, the United States was attacked by the Imperial Japanese Navy in Hawaii. The surprise attack was begun at 7:48 AM on a Sunday morning and was aimed at the US Pacific Fleet along with the Hickam Army Air Force Base and numerous ancillary military sites resulting in 2,403 Americans killed and 1,178 wounded. In addition, over the next 7 hours, the Japanese also attacked the Philippines and Wake Island – both US Territories at the time. They also attacked British territories in Malaya, Singapore, and Hong Kong.
The result? America responded. Those who served, whether at home or abroad, in uniform or not, have been described as America’s Greatest Generation. American industrial might fed military efforts in Europe, Asia, and both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. That generation went on to put men on the moon, develop computers, with a list of accomplishments unlike any before.
Today, how many remember the day that will live in infamy? Not many, but having had the honor of serving with the US Navy combat engineers, the Seabees, I know the Seabees will. They still sing:
We’re the Seabees of the Navy we can build and we can fight.
We’ll pave the way to victory and guard it day and night.
And we promise that we’ll remember the Seventh of December.
We’re the Seabees of the Navy, the Bees of the Seven Seas.
I have tried to avoid political commentary because—well, you know. However, there are some random thoughts that involve political issues.
There are 535 members in Congress, plus 6 non-voting members who represent the US Territories. There are about 20 whose cockamamie antics garner all the news coverage, while the majority just go about their business. What would happen if the news media decided to ignore repeat offenders.
I missed the memo. When did lying, cheating, and stealing become okay? Is it only for politicians, or are we average people allowed to run amok as well?
Remember back before climate change, when we confidently checked the Old Farmers’ Almanac and looked at wooly bear caterpillars to predict winter? It would be interesting to see a statistical comparison of the accuracy of one vs. the other.
Finally, it’s that time of year. If you’re not careful, you might end up with fruitcake. It is possible that this might be the same fruitcake your grandmother gave to someone and it is still being regifted.
Posted in Philosophy
Prognosticators receive far too much credit, especially since the news media are so desperate for something (anything) exciting to report. Here are two examples:
Pollsters—Political poll results are frequently not only wrong, but very wrong. It’s no wonder. The polling questions are often poorly constructed, such as:
Which statement is more true?
a) Congress is a serious, intellectual body that seeks to provide for the good of the country.
b) During mating season, frogs grow wings and fly to seek mates.
Then, the pollsters approach or telephone people to answer the questions. The people they get to speak with are those who want to answer for some reason. Many people walk away, refuse to answer, or hang up the phone (unless based on caller ID they just refuse to answer). Others figure it’s a game and give bogus answers, just for the hell of it.
Economists—From a big picture perspective, there are really only two possibilities; the economy will get better, or the economy will get worse. Period. All the supposed data that allegedly support the conclusion is inconsequential. Most people don’t read it anyway, so they skip all that and jump to the conclusion. Flip a coin. Choose one.
Once economists publish their prediction, all they have to do is stick with that conclusion. Since the economy is cyclical, if the short term outcome goes against their opinion, sooner or later it will go in the other direction. Until it does, label everything that happens as an aberration or explain that this is necessary to reach the predicted outcome. Sooner or later, the economy goes according to the prediction and the economist can exclaim, “See, I told you so!”
Lessons Learned—From these two examples, it becomes obvious that if you are looking for a new occupation, these are two of the best options. If you are correct 30 percent of the time or more, you’ll be seen as an absolute genius.
Halloween is a strange and wonderful holiday. Kids love it because they get candy (DUH!), but adults are now decorating their homes for Halloween. I don’t know who keeps track of such things, but it almost seems like more people decorate for Halloween than Christmas.
Originally, All Hallows Eve was the way to recognize the day before All Saints Day. Parts of it may have come from various pagan cultures since early Christianity had a knack for merging religious holy days with existing holidays. The Gaelic festival Samhain, which celebrated the harvest, is the most likely candidate. In some ways it’s reminiscent of Mardi Gras, which also includes costumes and sharing treats, the day before Ash Wednesday.
Halloween is one of the major reasons we extended daylight saving time. The candy manufacturers, like the various businesses depending on outdoor grilling.
In any case, the first of November is dedicated to all the saints, not just the famous ones. If grandma made it to Heaven, she’s on the honored guest list.
From what I’ve read, the various stories about poisoned candy or sharp objects embedded in apples are all bogus. Here’s a link. That’s not to say that it has never, ever happened, or never will. As the saying goes, if there’s an idiot, he’ll be there. Not grammatically smooth, but true, nevertheless. However, the biggest threats to kids on Halloween are automobiles.
In any case, Happy Halloween!
Posted in Philosophy
When my kids were young and learning how to read, they started out with picture books. These are books with some text, but lots of pictures.
Eventually, my kids advanced to books that have more text than illustrations. They call these chapter books.
There are “graphic novels” that are especially attractive to boys of all ages. Back in the dark ages we called these comic books.
Many books that adults read have illustrations, of course, but the bulk of the content is words. Works of fiction often have few if any pictures since the stories describe things that never happened. For these, the images are in the readers’ minds.
Today, many alleged news sources online are supposedly aimed at adults. However, since most of the stories are not really news, there are lots of pictures, many of which are stock photos rather than photos of the actual issue or event. They include pictures for the sake of having pictures.
I guess that as a species, we’re regressing and we’re back to needing more pictures and less text, which might explain the current interest in adult coloring books. We’ve come full circle.
Posted in Philosophy
sfnowak 